Anti-alcohol messaging is going to continue and it will be increased during this upcoming year. The World Health Organization (WHO) is now warning against the consumption of any alcohol. Cancer warning labels are now being proposed and will no doubt soon be applied to all alcohol packaging. These warnings will no doubt be accompanied by a reduction in alcohol consumption. However, there are several other factors that will impact alcohol sales.

To begin with, many Millennial and Gen Z consumers are focused on their physical and mental state and how they portray themselves on social media. They have come to associate alcohol with vulnerability, loss of control, anxiety and abuse. For these reasons they have reduced their alcohol consumption.

The increase in popularity of anti-obesity drugs is also having an impact. Glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1), anti-obesity Semaglutide, Liraglutide, as well as Tirzepatide drugs like Saxenda, Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro are now very popular. GLP-1 works by trigging the release of insulin from the pancreas, reducing glucose from entering the bloodstream, slowing digestion and increasing the ‘full’ sensation people feel after eating.

So, how does this impact wine consumption? Studies revealed that Semaglutide reduced binge-like alcohol drinking. The drugs moderated GABA, the gamma-aminobutyric acid receptors in the brain responsible for the ‘buzz’ associated with moderate consumption of alcohol.

There is growing evidence that many users of these drugs feel less inclined to drink any form of alcohol. If GLP-1 becomes as affordable and as widely used as many predict, the effect on the food and drink industries may be dramatic.

Alcohol-free beverage alternatives are becoming more popular as the quality of these products continues to improve and they gain more market acceptance. Our own kids, who are all adults, are into alcohol free alternatives, especially beer. And now with many craft breweries and estate wineries expanding their offerings to include alcohol free options, the quality of these products maintains the same standard as their alcohol-based options. If nothing else, these beverages will provide lunchtime beverage alternatives to soda or mineral water.

Some countries, such as Great Britain, are imposing a different level of excise tax based on alcohol level. For example, beginning February 1, 2025, the duty and tax on a 13.5% Alcohol by Volume (ABV)bottle of wine will be £3.59, whereas an 8.5% ABV bottle will be taxed at just £2.05.

Finland has just reduced its alcohol distribution rules. Beverages with ABVs of 8% or less can now be sold in supermarkets. Traditionally, once one Nordic nation changes the rules, the others, such as larger Sweden, tend to soon follow.

Public attitudes toward alcohol are changing. The social licence to encourage a guest to have another glass of wine or to finish off the bottle are becoming less acceptable behaviours and are being widely revoked.

As Bob Dylan wrote, “The Times They Are a-Changin”.

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